Financial Market Insights

Financial Market Insight

Recipe for a September Rally: Three Ingredients Needed, None Guaranteed

August was another positive month for stocks, but higher oil, elevated Treasury yields, and inflation uncertainty remain the primary headwinds entering September. We lay out the three developments that could clear them: oil retreating to manageable levels, a measured Fed decision on September 15–16, and a tame August CPI report on September 11. Also inside: what the August jobs and ISM data say about growth versus inflation, why yields matter more than the dollar, and a Fintech Spotlight on tokenization moving toward the mainstream.

September 9, 202615 min read

Financial Market Insight

Did Markets Pass or Fail the Three Tests?

Our investment committee's three market tests came back mixed: AI infrastructure earnings from ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor raised new questions about spending sustainability, even as inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony both came in favorably. Also inside: the AI trade's new three-way split (ROCs, SOCs, and SaaS), what IBM's historic one-day selloff means for tech spending broadly, and what the copper-gold ratio is signaling about the economy.

July 20, 202618 min read

Financial Market Insight

Market Rally: Strong Fundamentals, But Real Risks Remain

The six-week rally has real fundamental support — strong earnings and resilient growth — but three risks could still change the outlook: stagflation, a forced Fed rate hike, and a slowdown in the AI boom.

May 12, 202613 min read

Financial Market Insight

What the U.S./Iran Conflict Means for Markets

Our immediate take on what the U.S./Iran conflict means for markets — plus an important week of economic data, the two sources of AI anxiety, and monitoring private credit risk through credit spreads.

March 2, 202612 min read

Financial Market Insight

How AI Turned Into a Headwind: Three Problems Driving Market Volatility

How AI turned from a tailwind into a headwind — the three 'AI problems' driving the volatility, a Goldilocks read on the latest economic data, and the most important industry to watch right now.

February 17, 202611 min read

Financial Market Insight

Markets at Record Highs: How Much Uncertainty Can They Withstand?

Technical View: The January rally to record highs shifted the technical outlook from cautious to bullish, albeit with only moderate conviction given momentum…

January 14, 202611 min read

Financial Market Insight

Can the Market Rally Without Tech? NVDA Earnings Hold the Key

Technical View: The trend in the S&P 500 has shifted back to cautiously bullish as the index continues to grind to record all-time highs.

November 19, 202510 min read

Financial Market Insight

AI Enthusiasm Could Soon Be the Only Thing Holding Up This Market

Technical View: The trend in the S&P 500 has shifted back to cautiously bullish as the index continues to grind to new record highs.

October 15, 202510 min read

Financial Market Insight

Two Events That Could Actually Cause a Pullback

“August 2025 Investment Insights: Inflation, Fed Rate Cuts, Commodities, and the Future of AI”

August 21, 202511 min read

Financial Market Insight

Market Valuations: Is the Good News All Priced In?

Navigating uncertainty with discipline as tariff threats escalate: the July Market Multiple Table on whether the good news is all priced in, key themes we're watching, this week's economic data, and a Bitcoin & Crypto update.

July 15, 202520 min read

Financial Market Insight

Tariffs in Limbo: The TACO Trade Meets Rising Credit Risk

Tariffs remain in legal limbo after a court stay, while the “TACO trade” and early credit-spread deterioration take center stage for markets.

June 2, 202516 min read

Financial Market Insight

Tariffs and Market Fear: Why Process Beats Panic

At the time of writing this, Monday morning Futures are sharply lower again (down close to 2%) as there was no meaningful tariff relief over the weekend while…

April 20, 202521 min read

Financial Market Insight

What Is Really Pressuring Stocks: Fear, Not Fundamentals, Drives the Selloff

Stocks tumbled and turned negative year to date following the imposition — and then delay — of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but fear is driving this sell-off, not actual bad economic data.

March 11, 202514 min read

Financial Market Insight

Four Key Areas of Policy and Politics That Matter Most to Markets

Stocks rebounded last week thanks to better-than-feared CPI/PPI data that eased worries the Fed was about to pause rate cuts.

January 23, 20255 min read

Financial Market Insight

Bullish Thesis Gets Stronger: Goldilocks Data, Republican Sweep

Stocks surged following more Goldilocks economic data and the Republican sweep in the election, which will result in more pro-growth economic policies — strengthening the bullish thesis for 2024.

November 11, 202412 min read

Financial Market Insight

A Critical Two Weeks: The Four Tests Facing the Market Rally

Stocks declined modestly last week as Treasury yields rose to multi-month highs while earnings results were a bit more mixed, although the declines were modest…

October 21, 202411 min read

Financial Market Insight

Near Record Highs: ORCL Earnings and Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Fuel Rally

Stocks rallied and the S&P 500 climbed close to previous all-time highs thanks to solid tech earnings from ORCL and increased expectations for a 50-bps…

September 21, 20249 min read

Financial Market Insight

The Growth Scare Is Here: What It Means for Markets

The week of August 5, 2024, begins with a major global market sell-off following the Bank of Japan's decision to tighten monetary policy.

August 21, 20249 min read

Financial Market Insight

Trump Assassination Attempt: Limited Market Impact, Real Risks Remain

The S&P 500 hit yet another record high last week as CPI rose less than expected and boosted investor expectations for a September rate cut.

July 21, 202416 min read

Financial Market Insight

When Does Bad Economic Data Become Bad for Stocks?

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high last week thanks to more AI enthusiasm and mostly Goldilocks economic data — but bad economic data becoming bad for stocks remains the key risk to watch.

June 11, 202413 min read

Financial Market Insight

Hot CPI Crushes Rate Cut Hopes as Treasury Yields Surge

The S&P 500 declined last week as June rate cut expectations plunged following the hotter-than-expected CPI report and as Treasury yields surged to…

April 14, 202413 min read

Financial Market Insight

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets: Still All About Growth

The Fed's March decision kept three rate cuts penciled in for 2024 and upgraded its growth outlook, reinforcing the market's soft-landing narrative — plus what the Bitcoin 'halving' means for investors.

March 20, 202412 min read

Financial Market Insight

Markets Hit New Highs as Fed Upgrades Growth, Keeps Rate Cuts on Track

The S&P 500 accelerated to new all-time highs thanks to the Fed upgrading its outlook for economic growth this year (and inflation expectations) while…

February 20, 202412 min read

Financial Market Insight

Fed's Pivot: Rate Cuts Are Coming, But Timing Remains Uncertain

Equities started the year on a cautious note, as investors digested the significant gains from the end of 2023 and recalibrated expectations for the Federal…

January 20, 20244 min read

Financial Market Insight

Falling Yields, Rising Stocks: The Bull and Bear Case for 2024

Stocks rallied on dovish Fed comments as yields plunged; VEM weighs the 2024 bull and bear cases, warning falling yields may also signal slowing growth.

December 5, 202329 min read

Financial Market Insight

Fed Signals It's Done Hiking: Stocks Rally as Treasury Fears Ease

Stocks rallied hard as Powell signaled the Fed is likely done hiking and Treasury borrowing needs came in lighter than feared, but growth data is now the key swing factor to watch.

November 7, 202312 min read

Financial Market Insight

Rally's Three Pillars Hold as Dow Theory Turns Bullish

Stocks held near YTD highs as Goldilocks data and an as-expected Fed hike kept the rally's three pillars intact, while Dow Theory turned bullish in July.

August 1, 202315 min read

Financial Market Insight

S&P 500 Nears 4,400: Disinflation Rally Leaves Little Room for Error

Stocks rallied to fresh multi-month highs on further disinflation, pushing the S&P 500 near 4,400 — but valuations now price in a lot of good news and little room for negative surprises.

June 20, 202312 min read

Financial Market Insight

Mega-Cap Tech vs. Broad Market: What's Really Taking Place

VEM argues 2023 index gains reflect a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, not broad strength; falling rates signal a weakening economy, and the firm stays bearish.

May 2, 20234 min read

Financial Market Insight

SVB Fallout: A Risk, Not Yet a Bearish Gamechanger

SVB and Signature Bank failures prompted a Fed backstop; VEM says it's a risk but not yet a bearish gamechanger, with this week's CPI report the next key test.

March 13, 202318 min read

Financial Market Insight

S&P 500 Tops 4,000: Why Less Bad Isn't Good Enough

Stocks rallied as Fed fears eased and the S&P 500 topped 4,000, but the Investment Committee warns valuations already price in more than the facts support.

December 2, 202219 min read

Financial Market Insight

Bear Market Rally: Dovish Hikes Are Not a Fed Pivot

Stocks rallied on hopes of smaller Fed rate hikes and better-than-feared earnings, but VEM views this as a Bear Market Rally, not yet a true Fed pivot.

October 31, 202221 min read

Financial Market Insight

How Bad Can It Get and What Makes It Stop?

Stocks slid to fresh 2022 lows after a hawkish Fed decision and UK bond-market turmoil; VEM assesses how bad the selloff could get and what could stop it.

September 26, 20228 min read

Financial Market Insight

Fresh 2022 Lows: When Could the Selling Stop?

Stocks fell to fresh 2022 lows after the Fed's 75-bps hike, but VEM sees a possible bottom near 3,450-3,680 as three key catalysts play out.

June 21, 202212 min read

Financial Market Insight

Hawkish Fed, Stagflation Fears: Why Bond Yields Are Surging

Stocks dropped on hawkish Fed rhetoric and stagflation fears, while surging long-term bond yields hint markets doubt the Fed can tame inflation.

April 25, 202230 min read

Financial Market Insight

Escalation Risk: Russia-Ukraine War Fuels Commodity Surge

As the Russia/Ukraine war escalates and commodity prices surge, stocks hold a Hold stance in the 4,300-4,600 range while risks of a stagflation-driven downside grow.

March 7, 202220 min read

Financial Market Insight

Donbas Recognition: Fed and Growth Still Drive This Market

Markets stayed volatile as Russia recognized two breakaway Ukrainian regions; Fed policy and slowing growth, not geopolitics, remain the market's key driver.

February 22, 202227 min read

Financial Market Insight

Markets Due for a Bounce: But Volatility Isn't Over

Stocks are due for a bounce after a volatile January, but with the Fed set to keep hiking rates, the S&P 500's relief rally shouldn't be mistaken for an end to volatility.

January 31, 202224 min read